Half the nurses working today could leave the profession within a decade, leaving huge gaps in care, a leading researcher is warning. Reacting to a new study by the Canadian Institute for Health Information, Linda O'Brien-Pallas, chairwoman of the nursing human resources task force, said that, because of poor work conditions, an increasing number of nurses are retiring early. The report, which was published yesterday, reveals that the average age of a nurse in Canada is now 43.7 years, and for every nurse under the age of 39, there are two aged 40 or over. "If you crunch the numbers you realize that, in 10 years, more than half of the nurses who are currently working will be in that 55-to-59 age group and probably ready to retire," Dr. O'Brien-Pallas said. "In other words, we could lose half the nursing work force within a decade and the young nurses aren't there to take their place." Dr. O'Brien-Pallas said that while this all sounds theoretical and far off, Canadians need to realize that nursing shortages will have a direct and practical impact on the delivery of health care. "I wouldn't want to be in the hospital in the years to come if we have half the nurses we have today," she said. The study also reveals that, despite an aging Canadian population, the number of nurses per capita has fallen steadily for the past decade. There are now 74.3 registered nurses per 100,000 population, down from 81.9 in 1992. Dr. O'Brien-Pallas said the good news is that trends can be reversed and the worst of the shortages avoided if governments make necessary policy adjustments. In particular, she said improving work conditions can ensure that experienced nurses remain on the job until a normal retirement age and that more young people will be drawn to the profession. "This can be fixed, but the bottom line is political will," Dr. O'Brien-Pallas said. The CIHI report demonstrates that some improvements have been made, notably on the thorny issue of hiring large numbers of casual workers, who do not have a set number of hours in a pay period and often juggle jobs at several institutions. When health-care budgets were cut in the early 1990s, many full-time nurses were laid off and replaced by part-time and casual workers. By 1997, fewer than half the nurses in Canada had full-time jobs, and about one in five was a casual worker. That trend is now being reversed. In 2001, 53.2 per cent of nurses were full-time employees; 34 per cent were part-time, and 12.8 per cent were casuals. The change is even more pronounced among new nursing graduates. In 1997, fewer than 20 per cent got full-time work and more than 60 per cent were hired as casuals. Last year, half of nursing graduates got full-time work, and 25 per cent were hired as casuals. There were 231,512 registered nurses working in nursing last year, making them the largest group of health-care professionals. But while the number of nurses has increased marginally over the past five years, it is not keeping pace with Canada's population growth. For the first time, CIHI also published data on nurse practitioners, nurses with advanced training who focus on preventive health care and treating patients with chronic diseases. The report revealed that, despite legislation allowing them to practise in seven provinces and one territory, there are only 620 nurse practitioners in Canada. Nurse numbers drop A new report shows that in 2000 there were fewer nurses per capita than in 1992. By 2012, many will retire. .............Number...Average Province....employed......age Nfld..........5,394......39.7 PEI...........1,255......43.6 N.S...........8,699......42.9 N.B...........7,376......42.0 Que..........58,750......42.2 Ont..........81,679......44.2 Man..........10,051......43.2 Sask..........8,543......43.6 Alta.........22,172......43.4 B.C..........27,730......44.4 Yukon...........237......43.3 NWT.............433......41.9 Nun..............93......42.5 Can.........232,412......43.3
SOURCE: CIHI