There could be a shortfall of 113,000 nurses in Canada by the year 2016, a new study being released today indicates. The research, commissioned by the Canadian Nurses Association, is the most dire and detailed prediction to date on the country's inability to provide health care to an aging population. It is also a damning analysis of the country's health-care resource management. "There is compelling new evidence that the nursing shortage is getting worse," Ginette Lemire Rodger, president of the CNA, said in an interview. "The bottom line is that it's getting worse because we haven't taken action to prevent it. I hope this will be a wake-up call that we can't wait any longer to act," she said. The report, prepared by statistician Eva Ryten, estimates that the Canadian population will grow by 19.5 per cent by 2016, but owing to the aging of the baby-boom generation, the demand for nursing services will grow by 53.4 per cent. The report estimates Canada will need 361,000 nurses by 2016, but based on the number of spots available in nursing programs and retirement patterns, there will be only 248,000 nurses available. That works out to a shortfall of 113,000. In the report, Ms. Ryten recommends that governments immediately increase the number of spots in nursing programs to allow at least 12,000 nurses to graduate annually. That is double the number of graduates this year. She also recommends that efforts be made to retain the nurses who are leaving the profession early. Ms. Ryten cautioned against those who say much of the problem can be dealt with by luring back nurses who are not working, or hiring them from abroad. The report says there are fewer than 3,000 Canadian nurses who are looking for jobs and that there are only about 1,200 foreign-trained nurses who come to Canada to work annually. Dr. Lemire Rodger agreed that a made-in-Canada solution is necessary, and said retaining experienced nurses is essential. The key, she said, is improving the work environment. "The starting point has to be reasonable workloads for nurses," she said. Because of cutbacks, the workload for most nurses has increased markedly in recent years, and the problem threatens to get far worse as shortages worsen. This is driving nurses out of the profession, further exacerbating the shortages. The new research reveals that even the retention of young nurses is a major problem. Of the 81,044 graduates of Canadian nursing schools between 1990 and 2000, only 79 per cent are working in the profession today. The new study is the second this week to warn of grave shortages of nurses. The Canadian Institute for Health Information revealed earlier this week that the number of nurses per capita has fallen sharply over the past decade and that the nursing work force is aging rapidly. There are now two nurses over the age of 40 for every one under 40 and the retirement age is dropping steadily. This means that, within a decade, as many as half of Canada's 232,000 nurses could leave the profession. Both reports stressed the need for nurses to be offered full-time work. Just over half the nurses in Canada now work full-time.
Nurse shortage in the future
The table below shows how a nursing shortage in Canada has been projected for the year 2016:
Supply
| A - Between 1993 and 2016, supply must increase | 53.4% |
| B - Number of RNs employed in 1993 | 235,630 |
| C - Number of employed RNs required (to nearest 1000) | 361,000 |
| D - Projected number of RNs retained from 2001 | 130,000 |
| E - Projected number of RNs added since 2001 | 118,000 |
| F - Projected number of employed RNs in 2016 (D + E) | 248,000 |
| G - Number of employed RNs in 2001 | 231,512 |
| H - Additional employed RNs needed by 2016 (C - G) | 130,000 |
| I - Additional employed RNs available by 2016 (F - G) | 17,000 |
| SHORTAGE | -113,000 |